Data InsightsSmoking has already killed far more people this century than in the entire 20th century

Smoking has already killed far more people this century than in the entire 20th century

Smoking killed 100 million in the 20th century; this century, it has already killed far more

Bar chart comparing estimated premature deaths attributed to tobacco (including direct smoking and secondhand smoke): 20th century (1900 to 1999) — 100 million; 21st century so far (2000 to 2023) — 163 million. 

Note: Projections based on current smoking rates suggest that smoking could kill one billion people this century.
Data sources: Prabhat Jha (2009) and IHME, Global Burden of Disease.

Throughout the entire 20th century, about 100 million people died earlier than they would have because of smoking. That’s a lot, but it pales in comparison to the expected numbers for this century.

Between 2000 and 2023 alone, smoking-related deaths are estimated at 163 million. You can see this comparison in the chart.

Some epidemiologists project that unless there is a substantial change in smoking uptake and rates across the world, there could be as many as one billion smoking-related deaths in the 21st century.

In the 20th century, most of these occurred in today’s high-income countries. In the 21st century, most will come from low- and middle-income countries.

Many of the people who are expected to die are smoking today, but even more are expected to be future smokers. Finding ways to help people stop smoking and prevent them from starting matters for keeping this huge figure in the millions, not billions.

People often ask whether vaping is safer than smoking. I tackled this question in a recent article — the short answer is “yes”.

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